Start: Cooper Rush, Cowboys
Is Cooper rush good? Of course not. Does that matter? Only a little. The Cowboys are letting Rush sling it over the past two weeks with a +6% pass rate over expected.
Rush has 601 yards and three touchdowns in those two games. Vegas normally wouldn’t buy high on a backup quarterback after a single win, but the Cowboys face a slumping Giants defense with a backup quarterback of their own on the other side of the ball. The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites with a 20.25 implied team total. That ranks ahead of the Bears on Thursday and the Raiders on…Friday. We’re doing Friday football now, really? Rush is a viable QB2 with sneaky potential in DFS.
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Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
I don’t know who the Giants’ quarterback is and taking the quarterback with the next-lowest team total on Thanksgiving (Caleb Williams) felt too easy. Tua isn’t a complete fade this week, but it’s a tough spot for the Miami signal-caller. The Packers are eighth in EPA per dropback allowed and have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Dolphins are road underdogs with a team total just 1.5 points ahead of Rush’s Cowboys. The game total has also dipped slightly, possibly because of the temperature, which will be in the 20s around kickoff.
Tagovailoa has posted horrific numbers outside the blistering heat of Miami. In games with a temperature of 55 or below at kickoff, Tua has averaged 219 yards and 1.2 touchdowns over the past three seasons, good for a measly 13.7 fantasy points.
Start: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
Dowdle completed the takeover of the Dallas backfield last week with a season-high 70 percent of the Cowboys’ carries. He tied his season-high in touches (22) and amassed 98 yards from scrimmage. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs and sit at 27th in EPA per rush attempt allowed.
Sit: D’Andre Swift, Bears
Like most running backs, Swift does better when his team wins. Unlike some running backs, he doesn’t have the role or efficiency to survive most of Chicago’s losses. Swift goes from RB3 numbers in defeats to high-end RB1 production in the Bears’ rare victories.
As 10-point underdogs this week, a Bears win is as unlikely as they come. Swift has also conceded the goal line role to Roschon Johnson, making touchdowns even harder to come by.
Start: Jameson Williams, Lions
The Bears are a great defense on the whole, but their inability to prevent chunk gains has been one glaring leak in the unit this year. Chicago ranks 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed (16.8 percent) and 27th in YPA on deep throws. Williams has seen 37 percent of the Lions’ deep targets despite missing two games. He leads the team with 161 yards and two scores on deep shots.
Sit: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs
A second edition of Week 13 Start Sits will drop on Friday for the Sunday games, but we can talk about the Black Friday showdown between the Chiefs and Raiders here. No Chiefs wide receivers are playable. DeAndre Hopkins ran a route on 45 percent of the team’s dropbacks last week and has a route rate under 50 percent during the past two weeks. He has 10 targets over his past two games and a 15 percent target share since joining the Chiefs.
Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
Smith leads the Dolphins with a 22 percent target share since the team’s Week 6 bye. His 25 percent first-read target share is also pacing the team. He is fourth in yards per route run and fifth in ESPN’s open score among tight ends. Even if Tua struggles, Smith has played well enough and gets the ball often enough to get home against a Packers defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this year.
Sit: Sam LaPorta, Lions
LaPorta’s role seemed to be trending in the right direction before a shoulder injury sidelined him for Week 11. He returned to the low-volume gig he has played most of this season in the following game, earning five targets on a 16 percent target share. LaPorta is nothing more than a TE2 for Week 13.