How did we get to the final week of the regular season already?
There’s a lot at stake for the
College Football Playoff
and in the Big 12.
Nine teams enter Week 14 with a chance of winning the Big 12 title
, though some teams’ chances are a lot better than others. Arizona State, for example, is in the title game with a win over Arizona. West Virginia needs to beat Texas Tech and then hope for a whole lot of unlikely outcomes.
Rivalry week only features two games between ranked teams, but don’t let that make you think it won’t be an entertaining weekend of football. Just look at what happened in Week 13 when
three SEC teams in the hunt for the playoff all lost to unranked opponents
on the road.
Here’s what to watch for Week 14.
(All times are Eastern and
all odds are from BetMGM.
)
Time: Noon | TV: Fox |
Line: Ohio State -21 | Total: 43.5
There’s no better opportunity than now for Ohio State coach Ryan Day to finally get a win over Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games after Ohio State took down the Wolverines eight straight times from 2012 through 2019.
We can envision Michigan’s defense making it tough for Ohio State’s offense to move the ball. The Wolverines aren’t as good as they were a season ago on that side of the ball, but are still plenty talented. However, it’s hard to see how Michigan’s offense does much of anything against Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ front ran rampant on Indiana’s offensive line and wreaked havoc in their Week 13 win.
Michigan averages fewer than five yards a play and QB Davis Warren averages less than six yards per passing attempt. TE Colston Loveland is the focal point of the passing attack as Michigan’s wide receivers have statistics that look like they came from the 1940s. Semaj Morgan leads all UM wide receivers with 23 catches. He has 134 yards. Morgan and Tyler Morris are the only two wide receivers with more than eight catches. They’ve combined for 45 catches for 368 yards and three scores.
Ohio State’s No. 3 receiver Carnell Tate has 35 catches for 525 yards and four scores all by himself. Ohio State appears just too well-rounded for Michigan to pull the upset. But this is a heated rivalry game. And Michigan doesn’t have any pressure.
Time: Noon | TV: ESPN |
Line: Clemson -2.5 | Total: 49.5
South Carolina is still on the outside of the College Football Playoff even after the mess that was Week 13 in the SEC. The Gamecocks have been fantastic over the second half of the season, but their 27-3 loss to Ole Miss will probably end up being a playoff dealbreaker.
Clemson is still alive for the ACC title, but the Tigers need help and this rivalry game has no impact on that. Clemson is in the ACC title game against SMU if Miami loses at Syracuse. If the Hurricanes win, Clemson is sitting out conference championship weekend.
However, a big win over South Carolina would go a long way to boosting the Tigers’ playoff hopes. If Clemson can beat South Carolina by two scores, it’ll have one fewer loss than a team like Alabama and a more convincing home win. The Gamecocks lost 27-25 to the Tide in Tuscaloosa.
Clemson’s ability to stop South Carolina’s staunch defensive front and derail LaNorris Sellers will be key. Sellers has been the key to the Gamecocks’ five-game win streak as he’s made massive strides as a passer this season. The redshirt freshman is 77-of-128 passing for 1,317 yards and 13 TDs with just two interceptions in those five wins.
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: CBS |
Line: Notre Dame -7.5 | Total: 51.5
The Trojans can help salvage a frustrating season and potentially derail Notre Dame’s playoff hopes with an upset.
USC used a 10-point fourth quarter to beat UCLA 19-13 in Week 13. Jayden Maiava was 19-of-35 passing for 221 yards and a TD in his second start after taking over for Miller Moss. Moss was benched following the team’s 26-21 loss at Washington.
USC ranks just 56th in the country at 29 points per game and hasn’t scored more than 28 since a 42-20 win over Rutgers on Oct. 25. Can the offense reliably move the ball against a Notre Dame defense that’s been fantastic recently?
Notre Dame allows just 11.6 points per game and no opponent has scored more than 14 points since Louisville had 24 in late September. Those 24 points are also the most that anyone has scored against Notre Dame this season. Opponents are averaging just 273 total yards and 4.2 yards per play against the Fighting Irish this season and quarterbacks are bearing the brunt of those struggles. The numbers are skewed a bit because of games against Army and Navy, but opposing QBs are completing under 48% of their passes for 140 yards a game.
The Irish are also a very bad matchup for a USC defense that allows over five yards a carry. Notre Dame’s run game is one of the best in the country as Jeremiyah Love has turned into a home-run hitter. Love has 121 carries for 850 yards and 14 TDs.
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: ABC |
Line: Texas -5.5 | Total: 48.5
It’s fantastic that these two longtime rivals are finally playing each other again. And it’s made even better by the stakes. The winner will play Georgia for the SEC title on Dec. 7.
The Longhorns and Aggies haven’t played since 2011, when Texas needed a late field goal in College Station for a 27-25 win. That was A&M’s final game in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC.
All signs point to Quinn Ewers playing on Saturday night after suffering an ankle injury against Kentucky. Ewers hasn’t thrown a pick over his last three games since tossing two against Vanderbilt on Oct. 26. He’s thrown for nine TDs in that span and completed two-thirds of his passes. However, he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of Texas’ last two games despite attempting over 30 throws in either game.
A&M found itself in a 21-0 hole against Auburn before coming back to tie the game before halftime and even took a three-point lead late in the fourth quarter. Amari Daniels rushed for 90 yards and a score, but also had the game-tying two-point conversion go through his hands in the fourth overtime of the loss.
If the Aggies can trouble Texas’ defense with Daniels and Marcel Reed, they have a real chance to pull the upset. Opponents rush for just over three yards a carry against the Longhorns.
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: Fox |
Line: Iowa State -3 | Total: 51.5
Farmageddon has serious Big 12 title implications. Both teams are alive for the conference title, though Kansas State will know by kickoff if it still has a chance. If there’s a four-way tie at 7-2, Iowa State is in the Big 12 title game against Arizona State. If the Cyclones lose, they’re out of the title race.
The Cyclones escaped with a 31-28 win at Utah in Week 13, though the Utes got a pick-6 and also scored a TD on a blocked punt. It was the fourth game Iowa State has played this season that was decided by three or fewer points and the Cyclones are 3-1 in those contests.
Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have been the most productive receiving duo in college football this season. Higgins has 77 grabs for 1,015 yards and eight scores while Noel has 61 catches for 976 yards and five TDs. No other Iowa State player has more than 16 catches.
Kansas State’s special teams have been rough lately, though QB Avery Johnson appears back to full strength. The Wildcats ran all over Cincinnati in Week 13 as Johnson had three total touchdowns and DJ Giddens rushed for 143 yards and two scores on just 15 carries. Opposing teams have gashed Iowa State’s run defense this season. The Cyclones have allowed over 200 yards rushing in three of their last five games and give up over five yards a carry.
Memphis at No. 17 Tulane (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN):
Don’t be too quick to rule out the Green Wave from the College Football Playoff. Tulane could make some noise with convincing wins over Memphis on Thanksgiving and then against Army in the AAC title game. If there’s a mess in the Big 12, Tulane could kick the conference out of the playoff entirely.
Oregon State at No. 11 Boise State (Friday, Noon, Fox):
Boise State currently holds the fourth and final bye in the College Football Playoff bracket. Oregon State is playing to get to a bowl game. Ashton Jeanty is playing for the Heisman Trophy. This game is at the same time as Colorado’s regular-season finale vs. Oklahoma State. Get your remote thumb ready to flip back and forth between the top two Heisman contenders.
No. 8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt (Noon, ABC):
The Commodores have the chance to beat both Alabama and Tennessee in the same season. Vanderbilt has already clinched its first bowl berth since 2018 and is looking for an eight-win season for the first time since 2013. Tennessee, meanwhile, just needs to win. A victory likely cements the Vols’ place in the College Football Playoff.
Auburn at No. 13 Alabama (3:30 p.m., ABC):
Don’t rule out any outcome after what happened in Week 13. Alabama scored just three points in a 21-point loss at Oklahoma and Auburn beat Texas A&M in four overtimes. Remember fourth-and-31 a season ago? We sure do.
No. 6 Miami at Syracuse (3:30 p.m., ESPN):
This could be a sneaky test for the Hurricanes. Miami is a 10.5-point favorite and the 67.5-point total for the game is the highest of any Week 14 contest. Syracuse’s passing offense has been explosive with former Ohio State QB Kyle McCord outside of the disastrous game at Pitt. The first one to 40 wins.