In each of the last three seasons, a quarterback who was highly drafted but did not initially fulfill started to flourish in a new location with the right offense and coaching staff.
In 2022, the Seattle Seahawks decided 2013 second-round New York Jets pick Geno Smith would replace Russell Wilson as their franchise quarterback after Smith had been a washout with the Jets, the New York Giants, and the Los Angeles Chargers. Smith has been a plus-level starter in the Emerald City ever since.
Baker Mayfield was selected by the Cleveland Browns with the first overall pick in 2018, fell out of favor with head coach Kevin Stefanski, and was jettisoned in favor of Deshaun Watson, who joined the team in what may be
the worst deal
in NFL history.
Mayfield had a nice cup of coffee with the Los Angeles Rams
, and then signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023. Under offensive coordinators Dave Canales (who was instrumental in Smith’s professional rehabilitation, and
is doing the same for 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young
in Carolina) and now Liam Coen, Mayfield has come to define the Bucs franchise as much as any current player.
Related:
Did Austin Seibert just suffer the most agonizing few minutes in NFL history?
Sam Darnold, another Jets failure early in his career, was selected by Gang Green No 3 overall in 2018 – two picks after Mayfield. Things never worked out for Darnold there, and he was catapulted out of the building via a trade to the Carolina Panthers after three seasons. After two decent years with the Panthers, and a 2023 stint with the San Francisco 49ers as a backup, Darnold found the perfect place in Minnesota, where Vikings head coach and offensive shot-caller Kevin O’Connell has made the most of Darnold’s attributes while masking his deficiencies.
Could Jones be part of a similar the feelgood story in 2025?
The Giants recently
released the 2019 sixth-overall pick
after a career of (mostly) subpar play. Jones has never looked like The Guy. But, to be fair, he’s also had three head coaches, four offensive coordinators, and multiple offensive systems to deal with.
Per multiple reports
, Jones (who has cleared waivers, leaving any team that signs him without the weight of the four-year, $160m contract he signed in 2023) would prefer to wait for the right situation – preferably with a playoff-level team, which makes all the sense in the world. No reason to go with the first franchise that offers him a roster spot, especially if Jones would be sent into a similarly rocky situation.
Smith, Mayfield and Darnold were able to reframe their careers after landing with teams who built the right offenses around them. How can Jones’s second NFL team accomplish a similar turnaround, most likely with the 27-year-old as a backup behind a true star quarterback?
Jones isn’t the best field-reader in the NFL, and there are times when he waits too long to throw. But he is mobile, and he can win as a runner. He has 2,179 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns in his career. So the run-pass option should be a big part of his next offense. This concept gives the quarterback the option to throw, hand off to a running back, or run the ball himself based on how the defense attacks. It also tends to limit the quarterback’s need to read the entire field, as most RPO passes are of the quick-game variety.
This season, Jones has been relatively efficient as a passer and as a runner in RPO plays. He’s completed eight of 13 passes for 52 yards, while as an RPO runner, he’s gained 42 yards on six carries. Teams like the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, or Philadelphia Eagles, who run higher rates of RPO plays, may be good fits in that regard (again, we’re not saying Jones will replace Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts or even Bo Nix – but he could be a solid backup, and these tactics would work if he did come in as a replacement).
The term “game manager” is generally considered pejorative, as it indicates a quarterback whose physical gifts are unspectacular, and therefore must be protected by coaching and the talent around him. But every quarterback is a game manager to a certain extent, and even the all-time greats are coveted for their overall consistency as much as their flashes of brilliance.
What does this mean for Jones? In his case, his next coaching staff will want to establish a consistent rhythm for him in the passing game, and that means eschewing the deep ball in favor of short and intermediate passes. This not only regulates Jones’ inconsistencies, it also removes the previously mentioned field-reading issues when plays take longer to develop, and Jones starts to get out of his depth.
Jones’s passing splits this season tell the tale:
Passes under 10 air yards:
172 completions in 247 attempts for 1,241 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 79.7.
Passes of 10-19 air yards:
38 completions in 65 attempts for 613 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 87.5.
Passes of 20+ air yards:
Six completions in 29 attempts for 216 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 66.7.
Intermediate passes are what Jones’s next team should lead with, while giving him easy reads in red zone situations, which will complicate the short-pass numbers for any quarterback who isn’t conversant with converting in those compressed situations. The Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, and Cincinnati Bengals have outstanding intermediate passing games by design. You can build from there.
Former Giants general manager Dave Gettleman took Jones at No 6 after Jones had a great week of practice at the 2019 Senior Bowl,
and was named the game’s Most Valuable Player
. One of the reasons Gettleman is the Giants’
former
GM is that he placed more importance on one All-Star week over the three seasons at Duke in which Jones put up tape that was far more of the second- or third-round variety.
That put Jones firmly in the realm of the overdrafted. And while the money’s a lot better in that neighborhood, it also tends to create an unfortunate dichotomy between what is expected and what can actually be achieved. Not everyone is Tom Brady, who was selected with the 199th overall pick, and wanted to make everyone in the world pay dearly for that oversight.
In Jones’s final press conference as a Giants player,
he read a statement
in which he apologized for his overall performance and thanked the team. Jones was rightly praised for handling the situation professionally, but that’s a tough way to end one’s time with a franchise. And Jones’s self-confidence, something that is crucial for a quarterback, may be affected as a result. It’s not just self-confidence that is crucial for a quarterback either – his teammates must believe in his abilities too.
For example,
Young is turning things around with the Panthers this season
after a horrid rookie campaign in 2023, partly because his teammates now believe in him. After Young had his best game to date last Sunday in a 30-27 loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, veteran receiver Adam Thielen said of Young that he had become “The messenger of our confidence and who we can be. We love that guy, and [we] appreciate his kind of mindset this year.”
Wherever Jones goes, he’ll need help from his new coaches and players to wipe away the football sins of the past. In short, the goal will be to help Jones to become a Messenger of Confidence. That facet is mandatory for any quarterback hoping to find professional redemption.